2. Oslo, Norway and the world in the coming decades

In the feasibility study, we present a future vision of Oslo Science City. The innovation district will be a product of its own time, but what will Norway and the Norwegian economy actually look like several decades ahead? What will be the structure of the economy, and what role will the capital play? What is the role of our knowledge institutions – as sources of growth and social development?

The innovation district will contribute to the green transformation of Norway away from the dependence on oil. As society transitions to renewable energy, there will be large demographic changes and a strong need for digital competence.

LARGE REDUCTION IN OIL AND GAS

We know that revenues from the oil and gas sector will fall sharply in future. According to the latest yearly report to the Norwegian parliament on the long-term perspectives for the Norwegian economy, 60 % of revenues from this sector will disappear by 2045. This will require a major restructuring of the economy, not least for the knowledge-intensive jobs that are land-based. A large labour force in the oil sector is gradually freed and may move into other industries and parts of society. Knowledge communities will play a key role in this work of restructuring, in close collaboration with the business community

RENEWABLE ENERGY TAKES OVER

Fossil fules production will be substituted by renewable energy. The IEA estimates that the production of renewable energy will triple by 2040 in Europe. In Norway, demand for renewable energy will grow by much less (i.e., barely 20%, according to NVE). This is due to increased energy efficiency and the fact that we already have a high share of renewable energy. In the period up to 2050, the energy market in Norway will be characterized by efforts to find new ways of saving energy, distributing power and converting power demand from fossil to renewable, not least in the transport industry. Here, technology communities, consultants and advisors will play a vital role. They will innovate and search for new technological solutions. Digital competence becomes a key factor is this process of renewal.

HEALTH WILL BE A KEY ISSUE

The demand for healthcare services will increase significantly, here in Norway as well as globally. We are getting older and richer, raising the demand for good and varied health services. The percentage of the population in Norway that is over 75 years of age will grow from 8% today to 14% in 2045 (75% increase). This requires far more health workers and more efficient services. Over the last 25 years, the number of health workers in the country has grown by 200,000. There is good reason to expect that there will be a need for a further 300,000 employees in the sector over the next two decades. This growth will gain further momentum as the health industry in Norway invests more in development of products and services, servicing global export markets. Today, the health industry has a turnover of over NOK 60 billion. In the future, this industry will have strong links to digital services, the production of sensors and development of control systems. In Norway, much of this expertise is located in universities, hospitals and research institutes.

A BOOM IN THE NEED FOR DIGITAL COMPETENCE

The demand for digital competence will will increase massively. Economists Osborn and Frey show that by 2050 we will experience that 1 in 3 types of jobs will disappear due to automation and digitalization. Norway is already one of the world’s most digital economies, but we will still see a strong increase in the need for digital competence. Our society will be shaped by the integration of digital solutions and services. It will form all parts of the economy. Our everyday life will be shaped by digitalization to a much larger extent than most can imagine. It will be challenging for many but provides great opportunities for the country as whole.

LARGER SHARE WITH HIGHER EDUCATION

For those over 25 years of age, the proportion that holds a master’s degree increased from 4% in 1989 to 13% in 2019. Following this trend, more than 20% of adults in Norway will have a master’s degree in 2045. In Oslo, the proportion may reach 30%. The need for lifelong learning will also increase strongly. Overall, this creates a rich opportunity space for knowledge-based innovation and business development in Oslo, much like what can be observed in the most knowledge-intensive regions of the United States. Such a path requires that additional resources are devoted to our knowledge institutions, raising their capacity to work closely together with the business community and the public sector.

SOCIAL INEQUALITY WILL MARK SOCIETY

Social inequality will become a growing problem. While digital solutions tend to favour the winners in the business world, digitalization also provides opportunities for a large pool of new innovative commercial solutions that may help to us deal with important societal challenges. Social inequality affects people’s health. The long-term trend shows that social status explains an ever-increasing share of differences in health status. Growing inequality and the experience of social exclusion can also weaken confidence in democracy. There is a considerable need for insight and innovative solutions to manage and fight inequality and exclusion. New insights in the social sciences therefore become just as important as technological insight if we are to understand and deal with the major societal challenges.

URBANIZATION AND PROXIMITY TO NATURE

The Oslo region will grow significantly over the coming decades. According to Statistics Norway, the region will grow by 22% by 2045, and 1.6 million inhabitants will live here. The main drivers for this strong growth are urbanization and the search for geographical proximity. Also, ties to other parts of the country are becoming far stronger through closer professional collaboration enabled by digital solutions. A growing proportion of those who work in Oslo Science City will be able to live outside the city. More people may use their holiday cottages, both as dwelling and as workplace. This improves access to qualified labour. With a rapidly growing population, the Oslo region also faces challenges, not least with regards to capacity in municipal health and care services. In the future, Oslo Science City can become a fully integrated test arena for new municipal solutions in close cooperation with technology suppliers.